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Classic Car Market Stabilisation: Hagerty’s John Mayhead Analyses Trends And Future Outlook
John Mayhead, the UK Editor for Hagerty Price Guide, has observed that the classic car market might have reached a plateau. Post-Covid, there was a surge in demand, causing prices to spike as sellers increased asking prices. However, by summer 2023, sales rates began to decline through dealers and auctions, leading to a drop in general values.
In recent months, nearly 90% of UK Hagerty Price Guide values have remained unchanged. This suggests some stability in the market. Five out of six indices stayed within one percentage point of neutral, indicating minimal fluctuation. This stability comes after significant changes in the market dynamics over the past few years.
The classic car market experienced a notable shift post-pandemic. Initially, there was a rush among buyers eager to purchase cars they had long desired. Hagerty's six UK indices showed a rise in values due to high demand and limited supply. Sellers capitalised on this by raising prices, which buyers were willing to pay at the time.
However, as life returned to normal and remote work became less common than expected, many potential buyers reconsidered their spending habits. Economic factors such as rising interest rates and living costs also played a role in this shift. Additionally, upcoming elections in both the UK and US added uncertainty, prompting caution among consumers.
The economic landscape has influenced buyer behaviour significantly. Many who impulsively bought classic cars post-pandemic decided to sell them later on. This contributed to declining sales rates observed by Hagerty during summer 2023 through both dealers and auctions.
In the year leading up to September 2024, about 40% of models listed in the UK Hagerty Price Guide saw value reductions; similarly around 35% dropped in value according to the US Guide—both unprecedented declines.
Auction Insights
The Monterey auctions held in August 2024 reflected these trends with combined sales results falling nine percent below even Hagerty’s most pessimistic forecasts before the event took place.
Data from Bonhams Goodwood Revival auctions further supports this trend: comparing results from 2023 with those from 2024 reveals lower sale prices compared against mean low estimate figures alongside decreased high bids when cars failed to sell.
Future Outlook
The number of cars consigned dropped by 15%, while sell-through rates fell by 11% year-on-year at these auctions—suggesting sellers may now accept lower offers than last year due partly due anecdotal evidence pointing towards awareness that it could be bottoming out for both buyers & sellers alike.
Looking ahead into next year’s auction calendar reveals fewer notable sales scheduled across Europe until February’s Paris events take place; meanwhile America sees an uptick during fall season but overall activity remains subdued globally until then too given current circumstances surrounding political developments affecting consumer confidence levels worldwide right now including new presidential administration taking office soon plus Labour Party unveiling fiscal plans spanning next five years domestically within United Kingdom itself alongside France unveiling its own governmental agenda shortly thereafter potentially boosting purchasing sentiment moving forward accordingly once clarity emerges regarding these matters fully realised eventually over time ahead ultimately speaking here today presently indeed so far thus far anyway anyhow regardless nevertheless notwithstanding still yet however albeit though nonetheless conversely alternatively instead likewise similarly equally 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